Randomness: Crash Course Statistics #17

There are a lot of events in life that we just can’t predict, but just because something is random doesn’t mean we don’t know or can’t learn anything about it. Today, we’re going to talk about how we can extract information from seemingly random events starting with the expected value or mean of a distribution and walking through the first four “moments” – the mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis.

Note: There are many formulas to calculate skewness and kurtosis (https://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/eda/section3/eda35b.htm), our formulas deal with what they have in common, their moment generating functions.

More on sheep study: http://aiweirdness.com/post/171451900302/do-neural-nets-dream-of-electric-sheep

More on fecal matter study: http://aem.asm.org/content/early/2018/02/05/AEM.00044-18.abstract

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Thanks to the following Patrons for their generous monthly contributions that help keep Crash Course free for everyone forever:

Mark Brouwer, Glenn Elliott, Justin Zingsheim, Jessica Wode, Eric Prestemon, Kathrin Benoit, Tom Trval, Jason Saslow, Nathan Taylor, Divonne Holmes à Court, Brian Thomas Gossett, Khaled El Shalakany, Indika Siriwardena, SR Foxley, Sam Ferguson, Yasenia Cruz, Eric Koslow, Caleb Weeks, Tim Curwick, Evren Türkmenoğlu, D.A. Noe, Shawn Arnold, mark austin, Ruth Perez, Malcolm Callis, Ken Penttinen, Advait Shinde, Cody Carpenter, Annamaria Herrera, William McGraw, Bader AlGhamdi, Vaso, Melissa Briski, Joey Quek, Andrei Krishkevich, Rachel Bright, Alex S, Mayumi Maeda, Kathy & Tim Philip, Montather, Jirat, Eric Kitchen, Moritz Schmidt, Ian Dundore, Chris Peters, Sandra Aft, Steve Marshall

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Geometric Distributions & The Birthday Paradox: Crash Course Statistics #17

Geometric probabilities, and probabilities in general, allow us to guess how long we’ll have to wait for something to happen. Today, we’ll discuss how they can be used to figure out how many Bertie Bott’s Every Flavour Beans you could eat before getting the dreaded vomit flavored bean, and how they can help us make decisions when there is a little uncertainty – like getting a Pikachu in a pack of Pokémon Cards! We’ll finish off this unit on probability by taking a closer look at the Birthday Paradox (or birthday problem) which asks the question: how many people do you think need to be in a room for there to likely be a shared birthday? (It’s likely much fewer than you would expect!)

Crash Course is on Patreon! You can support us directly by signing up at http://www.patreon.com/crashcourse

Thanks to the following Patrons for their generous monthly contributions that help keep Crash Course free for everyone forever:

Mark Brouwer, Glenn Elliott, Justin Zingsheim, Jessica Wode, Eric Prestemon, Kathrin Benoit, Tom Trval, Jason Saslow, Nathan Taylor, Divonne Holmes à Court, Brian Thomas Gossett, Khaled El Shalakany, Indika Siriwardena, SR Foxley, Sam Ferguson, Yasenia Cruz, Eric Koslow, Caleb Weeks, Tim Curwick, Evren Türkmenoğlu, D.A. Noe, Shawn Arnold, mark austin, Ruth Perez, Malcolm Callis, Ken Penttinen, Advait Shinde, Cody Carpenter, Annamaria Herrera, William McGraw, Bader AlGhamdi, Vaso, Melissa Briski, Joey Quek, Andrei Krishkevich, Rachel Bright, Alex S, Mayumi Maeda, Kathy & Tim Philip, Montather, Jirat, Eric Kitchen, Moritz Schmidt, Ian Dundore, Chris Peters, Sandra Aft, Steve Marshall

Want to find Crash Course elsewhere on the internet?
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The Binomial Distribution: Crash Course Statistics #15

Today we’re going to discuss the Binomial Distribution and a special case of this distribution known as a Bernoulli Distribution. The formulas that define these distributions provide us with shortcuts for calculating the probabilities of all kinds of events that happen in everyday life.They can can also be used to help us look at how probabilities are connected! For instance, knowing the chance of getting a flat tire today is useful, but knowing the likelihood of getting one this year, or in the next five years, may be more useful. And heads up, this episode is going to have a lot more equations than normal, but to sweeten the deal, we added zombies!

If you want to try out some of the math from this video here is a great binomial probability calculator: http://vassarstats.net/textbook/ch5apx.html

If you’d like more information on calculating the binomial coefficient (n-choose-k) read this: http://www.statisticshowto.com/binomial-coefficient/

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