Geometric Distributions & The Birthday Paradox: Crash Course Statistics #17

Geometric probabilities, and probabilities in general, allow us to guess how long we’ll have to wait for something to happen. Today, we’ll discuss how they can be used to figure out how many Bertie Bott’s Every Flavour Beans you could eat before getting the dreaded vomit flavored bean, and how they can help us make decisions when there is a little uncertainty – like getting a Pikachu in a pack of Pokémon Cards! We’ll finish off this unit on probability by taking a closer look at the Birthday Paradox (or birthday problem) which asks the question: how many people do you think need to be in a room for there to likely be a shared birthday? (It’s likely much fewer than you would expect!)

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Mark Brouwer, Glenn Elliott, Justin Zingsheim, Jessica Wode, Eric Prestemon, Kathrin Benoit, Tom Trval, Jason Saslow, Nathan Taylor, Divonne Holmes à Court, Brian Thomas Gossett, Khaled El Shalakany, Indika Siriwardena, SR Foxley, Sam Ferguson, Yasenia Cruz, Eric Koslow, Caleb Weeks, Tim Curwick, Evren Türkmenoğlu, D.A. Noe, Shawn Arnold, mark austin, Ruth Perez, Malcolm Callis, Ken Penttinen, Advait Shinde, Cody Carpenter, Annamaria Herrera, William McGraw, Bader AlGhamdi, Vaso, Melissa Briski, Joey Quek, Andrei Krishkevich, Rachel Bright, Alex S, Mayumi Maeda, Kathy & Tim Philip, Montather, Jirat, Eric Kitchen, Moritz Schmidt, Ian Dundore, Chris Peters, Sandra Aft, Steve Marshall

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The Binomial Distribution: Crash Course Statistics #15

Today we’re going to discuss the Binomial Distribution and a special case of this distribution known as a Bernoulli Distribution. The formulas that define these distributions provide us with shortcuts for calculating the probabilities of all kinds of events that happen in everyday life.They can can also be used to help us look at how probabilities are connected! For instance, knowing the chance of getting a flat tire today is useful, but knowing the likelihood of getting one this year, or in the next five years, may be more useful. And heads up, this episode is going to have a lot more equations than normal, but to sweeten the deal, we added zombies!

If you want to try out some of the math from this video here is a great binomial probability calculator: http://vassarstats.net/textbook/ch5apx.html

If you’d like more information on calculating the binomial coefficient (n-choose-k) read this: http://www.statisticshowto.com/binomial-coefficient/

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Probability Part 1: Rules and Patterns: Crash Course Statistics #13

Today we’re going to begin our discussion of probability. We’ll talk about how the addition (OR) rule, the multiplication (AND) rule, and conditional probabilities help us figure out the likelihood of sequences of events happening – from optimizing your chances of having a great night out with friends to seeing Cole Sprouse at IHop!

Crash Course is on Patreon! You can support us directly by signing up at http://www.patreon.com/crashcourse

Thanks to the following Patrons for their generous monthly contributions that help keep Crash Course free for everyone forever:

Mark Brouwer, Glenn Elliott, Justin Zingsheim, Jessica Wode, Eric Prestemon, Kathrin Benoit, Tom Trval, Jason Saslow, Nathan Taylor, Divonne Holmes à Court, Brian Thomas Gossett, Khaled El Shalakany, Indika Siriwardena, Robert Kunz, SR Foxley, Sam Ferguson, Yasenia Cruz, Eric Koslow, Caleb Weeks, Tim Curwick, Evren Türkmenoğlu, Alexander Tamas, D.A. Noe, Shawn Arnold, mark austin, Ruth Perez, Malcolm Callis, Ken Penttinen, Advait Shinde, Cody Carpenter, Annamaria Herrera, William McGraw, Bader AlGhamdi, Vaso, Melissa Briski, Joey Quek, Andrei Krishkevich, Rachel Bright, Alex S, Mayumi Maeda, Kathy & Tim Philip, Montather, Jirat, Eric Kitchen, Moritz Schmidt, Ian Dundore, Chris Peters, Sandra Aft, Steve Marshall

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Mathematical Thinking: Crash Course Statistics #2

Today we’re going to talk about numeracy – that is understanding numbers. From really really big numbers to really small numbers, it’s difficult to comprehend information at this scale, but these are often the types of numbers we see most in statistics. So understanding how these numbers work, how to best visualize them, and how they affect our world can help us become better decision makers – from deciding if we should really worry about Ebola to helping improve fighter jets during World War II!

Episode Notes:

Tim Urban’s wonderful post about visualizing large numbers:
https://waitbutwhy.com/2014/11/from-1-to-1000000.html

Some of our reading that inspired this episode:
How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking by Jordan Ellenberg
Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and its Consequences by John Allen Paulos

Crash Course is on Patreon! You can support us directly by signing up at http://www.patreon.com/crashcourse

Thanks to the following Patrons for their generous monthly contributions that help keep Crash Course free for everyone forever:

Mark Brouwer, Nickie Miskell Jr., Jessica Wode, Eric Prestemon, Kathrin Benoit, Tom Trval, Jason Saslow, Nathan Taylor, Divonne Holmes à Court, Brian Thomas Gossett, Khaled El Shalakany, Indika Siriwardena, Robert Kunz, SR Foxley, Sam Ferguson, Yasenia Cruz, Daniel Baulig, Eric Koslow, Caleb Weeks, Tim Curwick, Evren Türkmenoğlu, Alexander Tamas, Justin Zingsheim, D.A. Noe, Shawn Arnold, mark austin, Ruth Perez, Malcolm Callis, Ken Penttinen, Advait Shinde, Cody Carpenter, Annamaria Herrera, William McGraw, Bader AlGhamdi, Vaso, Melissa Briski, Joey Quek, Andrei Krishkevich, Rachel Bright, Alex S, Mayumi Maeda, Kathy & Tim Philip, Montather, Jirat, Eric Kitchen, Moritz Schmidt, Ian Dundore, Chris Peters, Sandra Aft, Steve Marshall

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